Breaking Down the Problem Areas

There have been a lot of reasons lately for me to be skeptical about our chances of repeating as Stanley Cup Champions. So many in fact that I am scared to make a prediction beyond first round. And here are the five reasons why I'm not making that prediction but also an upside to each:

1. Goaltending
2. Defense
3. Penalty Kill
4. Playoff Matchups
   
5. Drive to win

I'll start with goaltending as it seems to be the biggest problem we face by far. We have two very capable goalies in Chris Osgood and Ty Conklin. However, how good are they going to be when the playoffs hit? I know I know, Ozzie did incredible in the playoffs last year but can he do it again? I hope so. Last season, Ozzie and Dom combined to win the Jennings Trophy for least goals allowed. When one would struggle, you could count on the other coming in to play lights out, no goals allowed hockey. Nine times last year, following a loss by Hasek/Osgood, the other goalie came in the next game and got a win. I know that's a very circumstantial stat but it does show the effectiveness that they had as a duo. Now I'm not writing off the Conklin and Osgood duo as one inferior to Hasek/Osgood, but somehow we've seen a worse performance. Osgood is playing well but at times he has let in goals that he knows there should be no excuse for him pulling the puck out of the net. Conklin, on the other hand looks like the seasoned vet and in fewer games than Ozzie he has one more win. Our goaltending though, as many around the league have noted, is not what it needs to be to repeat. The good part of this though? Osgood can catch fire at anytime and so can Conklin. Given the healthy competition for starting goalie in the playoffs, I think both of these guys will step up their game for the run to Stanley.

On to the enigma of the year, our defense. I don't know what has changed since last year but for whatever reason we are not the same team defensively. Last year, we gave up a league low 184 goals. This year? 230. That's 46 more than a year ago and there are still games to play. We've gone from +73 goal differential to +53.Granted a lot of that is probably Hasek/Osgood in net but the defense has been very questionable at times this year. It certainly does not look like the same defense as last year that had 2-3 Hall of Famers on it, yet its the same lineup. Maybe Babcock changed the way the players are matching up with opposing forwards or maybe teams around the league have just become wise to the Wings' ways. Or maybe it's just a half-hearted effort. I don't know the reason really and I don't know enough to break down tape other than the fact that our defenders are simply just out of position a lot of the time. I've also noticed a lack of blocking shooting and passing lanes this year in comparison to last year. Our defense is suspect, and teams are starting to realize that. They're finding the creases in our back line and finding ways to get to the goal. The good news? Nick Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski (having his best offensive season), and Brad Stuart are continuing to play well. Kronwall is still evolving as a player and I think he's our next Lidstrom (hence his nickname Nick Jr.). He shows excellent knowledge of the game,shows great positioning, has offensive skills that are growing with time, and as every team that faces him will tell you, he can hit with the best of them. Brett Lebda, Derek Meech, Andreas Lilja, and Jonathan Ericcson are all also big parts of our defense and will play a big role in the playoff run. Lebda contributed big in the postseason last year and will likely need to step up in the absence of Lilja. Also, its a good thing our offense is the most productive in the league.

Guh. The penalty kill this year is awful, and I don't know why. Here's the thing. Last year, we took 933 penalty minutes, 2nd fewest in the league and had a 84% (8th) kill success rate. This year, we've taken 765, 2nd fewest in the league but have only a 77% (26th) success rate. It doesn't make much sense to me as to why we've had a dropoff in penalty killing ability with 160 less minutes than last year.The weird thing is that percentage of total goals allowed that are powerplay goals allowed are the same this year and last year at 30%. So it still makes me wonder what's going on. Maybe it's just who is taking the penalties that makes our PK worse this year. Granted we didn't have him last year but Marian Hossa is a good penalty killer but his PIMs have nearly doubled from last year. I still can't figure out why we're so bad on the PK but the good news? We have the best powerplay in the league. So I guess you have to give a little to gain a lot.

The fourth thing is who could be matched up against in the first round of the playoffs. Most likely the Blue Jackets won't fall down to the seventh/eighth seed and I hope that they don't. I don't want to play against Steve Mason&Co. in round one, they've played us really well this year and could easily take the series. Another possibility is the Anaheim Ducks, which I also don't like. Anytime you have to face JS Giguere in the first round, you're gonna be frustrated y the end of the series because he can transform into a brick wall in the playoffs. A third potential matchup is intra-division rival Nashville. This would be a rematch of last year's opening round. Yet another team I don't want to face. The 6'5" Pekka Rinne has become a formidable force in net and the Preds are a physical team that knows how to play us and ruffle our feathers, thanks to Barry Trotz. A fourth potential matchup would be the Minnesota Wild. I do not like this matchup either because of their goaltending star Nicklas Backstrom. The Wild are weak in many areas so this is one of the few that I would not feel too uncomfortable with. The last and very likely first round matchup is with the St. Louis Blues. Although they recently made our defense look like a joke last time out, we're 5-1-0 against them this year and Chris Mason has some very exploitable flaws in his game. The good news? All of my fears for playoff matchups are based on goaltending, but we score the most goals in the league.

The fifth worry that I have is probably the one that I need to worry the least about. It's just hard to envision at times how some of our players will have the same drive and motivation that they did last year. Except for two players (Hossa, Conklin) all of the current roster had their name etched into the Cup last year. There've been times this year that I've questioned the drive of the team but in the end I think it comes down to professionalism and passion for success. Every player has put in their heart and soul and I think their passion is only going to increase as the Finals draw closer and closer. I think Hossa and Conklin will help contribute to this having been on the losing end of it last year after coming so far.

Don't get me wrong. I know teams around the league would kill to have the problems that we have but they are still problems nontheless. But coming off a Stanley Cup win and signing one of the most dominant offensive forces in the offseason in Marian Hossa, expectations are only for excellence and another banner in the rafters, anything short would be a failure in a city that's seen a little too much of it lately.

Game Preview: Preds @ Wings

How do you follow a loss to the NHL's worst team? Hopefully its with a win over one of the better post All-Star break teams this season and a division rival.

Nashville Outlook: Nashville has won two in a row and are 4-2-4 in their last 10. That third column in that line is very important. They had the chance to win 4 games but were unable to win them in overtime/shootout. Thats a four point turnaround no matter which way you turn it, all losses or all wins in regulation. All losses in regulation could have very well put them out of playoff contention but the fact that they were able to get a point out of all four of those games, is one of the reasons they're still in the playoff race.

Detroit Outlook: Like I said, how do you follow a loss to the worst team in the league? You know that that type of loss is demoralizing. I didn't see the entire game but from what I did see, we were completely outplayed by the Islanders. It looked like a classic case of role reversal. They looked like the team in 1st place in the league while we looked like the last place team. Hopefully it was just "one of those nights" but I think it may be part of a bigger problem. Our defense and goaltending has been suspect all year and it could be showing more weakness as the postseason draws near. Good news? We didn't have to win. Bad news? We should have won.

What to Look for: A high energy, refocused, and reenergized Red Wings as Babcock tries to get us back in playoff shape. From Nashville, watch for playmaking by Jason Arnott, J.P. Dumont,Shea Weber, and the underrated Pekka Rinne. From Detroit, watch for Jiri Hudler, Marian Hossa, Mikael Samuelsson, and Nick Kronwall. Kronner made a name for himself in the playoffs last year for laying out Predators players.

Hopefully Shea Weber doesn't bash any of our players heads in again in our pitiful attempts to fight.

Puck drops at 5 PM ET. I won't be able to watch it due to prior plans but as always, GO WINGS!

Blue Jackets blanked by Osgood

How do you play a team that previously beat you 8-2? Well, how about 4-0.

Marian Hossa scored the first goal of the game when he followed up his own shot and somehow put the puck past Columbus goalie Chris Mason. Hossa's goal was his 35th of the year and his first since returning from injury. Niklas Kronwall made it 2-0 with a powerplay goal midway through the 1st period, tallying his 4th goal and 43rd point of the year.

Mikael Samuelsson scored his 18th of the year on a two-on-one breakout during the 2nd period, snapping a shot over Mason's shoulder to give the Wings a 3-0 lead. Johan Franzen scored his 28th of the year, and put the game out of reach in the process, on a great individual effort deking out Mason.

The best part of the game was the way Osgood played in net. He stopped all 23 Columbus shots and had a few spectacular saves. This was big for him following his last outing against Columbus in which he surrended 7 of the 8 goals, on 23 shots as well. Hopefully he's getting in shape for the playoffs.

Player of the game: Well I'm tempted to go with Franzen and Kronwall who had a goal and an assist each but am gonna have to give it to Ozzie.

Next game is Tuesday against the Flyers at 7:30 PM ET on Versus.

Wings Blues Summary

Big rebound game tonight as Detroit blanked St. Louis 5-0 in a game completely controlled by the Wings. The game was a physical battle from the drop of the puck but the Wings didn't back down and dished out a lot of the punishment as well.

The game got off to an ominous start with Hossa losing his balance following a shot and a small push from a Roman Polak. I don't really think a penalty should have been called on Polak but I could also see how one was called. Hossa was on the ice for way too long and I dont like how he grabbed his neck immediately, especially coming off of a neck injury. Good knews is he was moving his arms and legs and hopefully it's nothing too serious. More updates on his status as they become available.

Then Aaron Downey showed why he was called up, and I take back all the...well they weren't bad things at all really...so I guess what I'm saying is yay for Aaron Downey.

I don't think there's a clear winner hear but both had awesome punches. Also of note, Youtube users are ridiculously fast. This was like 40 minutes after it happened. I also forgot that Downey was the guy that did this.

Kopecky put the Wings on the board in the 1st period when he picked up a rebound and deked Chris Mason to the side and put the puck on the empty side. The Wings killed off a 4 minute powerplay which was huge for the game momentum and oh yeah, Kopecky's goal came during it. Not only did we kill off all of the penalties tonight, we got the shorthanded goal. Despite the much criticized play of the PK units, you gotta admit it has certainly gotten better recently.

Zetterberg put another goal on the board in the 2nd on guess what? you got it! the powerplay! On a big mess in front of the goal, he slammed it in between Mason and the post.

Kopecky got another point on a backhand shot that Draper deflected past Mason in the 3rd. Kronwall blasted a puck off the glove of Mason and into the net for a second powerplay goal of the night. Mason had a beat on the puck but somehow it hit off the top of his glove and slowly flipped behind him into the net.

The Wings took advantage of a 5-on-3 and controlled the puck for 2 full minutes. Filppula scored his first goal in 19 games on a pass in front of the crease. Fil's goal wasn't technically a powerplay goal, coming 1 second after the two penalties expired, but the two Blues players were too far away to do anything about it.

Kopecky finished the game with 1 G & 2 A. Osgood got a shut out, stopping all 22 shots; which is big following the 8-0 drubbing at the hands of the Predators (although he only allowed 4 of those).

This was a good game following such a horrible one in Nashville. It showed that we're not afraid of taking the body and that we're still able to be productive offensively while doing so. We alos held true to our MO of puck control and it proved to be the main reason we won the game. We put a lot of pressure on their players and were able to force bad passes all night long. In short, we got back to playing Red Wings hockey

Next game is tomorrow at 9 PM ET against the Avalanche.

Sharks Wings recap

You'd think that teams would learn by now, dont take penalties when you play the Wings.

Hossa put a puck in between Evgeni Nabakov's legs on the Wings first powerplay. Nabokov made a partial stop but it still squirted through. Ville Leino got his 5th goal on a baseball style swing on an airborne puck to put the wings up 2-0 going into the first intermission. I couldn't help but think, how were we out shot 12-7 and still winning? We normally get dominated when we're being outshot but this is different. Our awful penalty killing also pulled through for us and didn't allow any goals in the first period.

Zetterberg's spin-o-rama breakaway shorthanded goal...not much I can say other than just wow. Yay for 12 more years of Zetters!
Ehrhoff got a powerplay goal to bring the Sharks within two.
Zetterberg got another goal on the powerplay as he faked a move behind the net but ended up stuffing the puck in off of Nabokov on a 5-on-3 powerplay and gave the Wings a 4-1 lead they wouldn't relinquish.

Conklin played out of his mind again. Hope this stays the same for the rest of the season.
One of the best parts of the night? Datsyuk, yes Datsyuk, was taking the body all game long. Which is awesome. He's a dwarf compared to the Sharks players but still threw around his body and didnt back down from any physical play. He even drew a penalty on Dan Boyle for slashing after he knocked Boyle down.

Other game notes:
I have found a new player to watch. Well, players.
1st, Ville Leino. Holy crap this guy is just a rookie and he's incredible. He's shown several times his ability to find the net at the right time and can read the play before it happens, something often hard to do in hockey with all of the caroms and deflections. 2nd, Nick Kronwall. Kronwall's becoming one of the better defensemen in the league yet is still relatively unknown. He's known for his big hits in the playoffs last year but he's also become a big time skilled defender for the Red Wings. He's a strong and balanced skater and has displayed his vast knowledge of the game on several occasions throughout the season. No wonder they call him Nick Jr.